There is a lot of data in the AFL to trawl through.
A lot.
And the worst part is, half of it doesn't make any sense half the time. Looking at you Carlton.
But, still, we gave it a crack here at The Rushed Behind and found some interesting results - namely Adelaide's apparent mid-game capitulations, Carlton and Collingwood corrupting every data-set they're involved in, the evolving juggernauts of Gold Coast and Hawthorn, and the power of Port Adelaide.
So, without further ado, here is our next set of stats to fulfil a lifetime.
THE DATA:
There are a couple of things to keep in mind here: firstly, these are not definite predictions about what will happen in each game; rather, they are parameters regarding what one should expect to happen. Secondly, there is a legend for the charts: - S.R refers to Scores Registered (i.e goals, behinds, and our namesake) and does not include shots that went out on the full or did not make the distance. - S.C stands for Scores Conceded, and pertains to the same rules listed above. - (A) means Against.
Which means we've arrived at...
Richmond vs. Hawthorn
Form-wise, Richmond are coming off the back of an average Marsh Series, a confident opening victory against Carlton, and a disappointing result against Collingwood. Hawthorn come into this match off of an average Marsh Series...a confident opening victory against Brisbane...and a disappointing result against Geelong.
Here's how both teams stack up after the first two rounds:
As mentioned before, Carlton and Collingwood ruin every single data-set they touch, which is why it's impossible to get an early read on the Tigers - first they came up against a Carlton team who don't know how to start a game on time only to blitz it at the end, and a Collingwood team who did the polar opposite.
What their data set reflects is the strategy/incapabilities of their opponents rather than their own tendencies. However, it is clear that they are at their strongest in attack after half time, with scores registered and inside 50's reflecting this.
Hawthorn, however, are showing a desire to attack in the second and last terms, whilst suffering a major drop-off in the third term. This could come back to bite them severely if Richmond stay true to form, and will be where the game is decided. Additionally, it is worth noting that Hardwick is yet to lose to Clarkson since 2016. If Hawthorn bring the same disposal efficiency as they did against both Brisbane and Geelong (71% and 64% respectively), this is unlikely to change.
Then again, it is Alistair Clarkson.
Western Bulldogs vs. GWS
The Bulldogs look horrendous at the moment, and questions will begin to bubble about the effect events in lockdown are exerting over their mental state right now. A bad loss to Collingwood was followed by an even worse loss to a good St Kilda outfit, and Beveridge's tactics are leaving fans scratching their heads.
So, what better time to come up against the team you trounced by 61 points away from home last year?
The Giants aren't looking flash at the moment either. After an efficient win against Geelong, they got roundly beaten by a North Melbourne outfit who just wanted it more.
This is what both sides look like after two rounds:
The Giants are showing an ability to convert their inside 50 chances into scoring shots. They are also showing more of an attacking impetus in the second and last quarters. This is where the Bulldogs are falling down - defence entries go up and attacking scores go down in the second term, highlighting a period of major weakness after appearing to start off okay.
Players to keep an eye on in this one are Josh Dunkley and Bailey Smith. With Macrae and Bontempelli not yet hitting their stride, these two are looking to pick up the slack, starting the season in fine form. And last year, Dunkley tore the Giants apart with 31 touches and two goals.
Expect a cagey start from both sides, with the Giants maybe facing some early pressure in the first term before seeking to assert themselves on the contest in the second term. The Giants will be baying for blood after this last result, and it's not an easy contest to pick, but the Bulldogs conceded over 80 points to defensive-minded teams whilst failing to score over 50 themselves twice in a row.
North Melbourne vs. Sydney
North are looking good. Two wins on the bounce against a rejuvenated St Kilda outfit and a heavily favoured GWS side and they're sitting pretty, stacking up nicely against the Swans who are enduring, yet again, a highly inconsistent start to their campaign. A tight win against Adelaide followed by a tight loss against Essendon is leaving many wondering what we should be expecting from this Swans team.
These two teams consistently offer tight contests - you need to go back to 2017 for the last time they were separated by more than two goals, with a very even spread of wins and losses (2-2 over the last four).
What the data is showing is that North Melbourne are a fit team capable of running out games strongly - something that they hold over the Swans. Additionally, after a slow start, they can be expected to turn on the heat after half time.
This is where Sydney can take their chance. The Swans aren't enjoying the best of their quarters; but their second quarters are something to behold. Thus far they've registered 14 scoring shots to 3 across their two games. This will be their point of difference.
A tight, contested, tough affair can be expected, with both sides known for their ability to not give an inch. Sydney are starting to get a bit younger, so North might edge them in the physical battle, but look out for Jordan Dawson bringing out the Weapon of Mass Destruction (his left boot). Consistently, either Lloyd or Dawson feature in the votes in this fixture, and with Lloyd likely to get locked down after his showing last week, Dawson may be freed up to unleash some carnage.
Collingwood vs St Kilda
Collingwood are starting to become predictable. The problem that other sides need to figure out is how to actually beat them, despite knowing what they're coming up against.
St Kilda, on the other hand, are looking like a completely new side, which may or may not correlate with their six new acquisitions in the off-season. A tight loss to North was followed by a comprehensive victory over the Bulldogs, and if they can subdue Collingwood's early potency, look out.
The game, it can be said, will be decided in the first quarter. Collingwood's strategy is clear: blitzkrieg in the first term, trenches for the last three. This is reflected by the decrease in attacking numbers and increase in defensive numbers as the game progresses.
If St. Kilda are able to withstand the Pies' barrage in the first term, the game becomes a shoot-out - and St. Kilda are showing a real ability to attack the second term with vigour, whilst their increasing inside 50 counts for the last term indicate a good level of fitness. However, as the data shows, converting these opportunities into scoring shots may be an issue for the Saints against a Collingwood defence that is used to increasing pressure as matches progress.
The Pies eclipse the Saints in uncontested possessions, uncontested marks and disposal efficiency, but St Kilda more than make up for it in the tackling department, including tackles inside 50. They must ensure Collingwood are not able to retain possession across the half-back line as they're so accustomed to doing, and bring the ball to ground in order to stand a chance here.
Geelong vs Carlton
This game is going one of two ways: either Carlton are getting smashed by over 50 points, or we are in for an absolute thriller; there is no in-between.
Geelong were disappointed with their performance against GWS, losing by 32 points in a match where the stats show it should've been closer, and decided to follow it up with a clinical performance against Hawthorn, running out as 61 point winners.
Carlton, on the other hand, are doing their utmost to bring an early onset of issues such as hair-loss and rising blood pressure upon their fans, as they set out to become the most inconsistent team possible or provide amazing evidence for five-quarter games. We're not exactly sure yet.
The fact is, that Carlton's 'best' is among the best in the competition. The other fact is that their worst is among the bottom two of the competition. The overriding fact is that, watch a Carlton match, and you will experience both. They rank in the bottom two for overall stats in the first quarter. They are regulars in the top four for the next three terms.
Geelong, however, are showing a tendency to attack the first and third terms, and if Carlton do a Carlton, then this game will be over by quarter time. Geelong are too professional an outfit to let what happened to Melbourne, Brisbane, Fremantle and others happen to them - and this is reflected in their 'scores conceded' in the last half of the game, which both decrease.
However, if Carlton turn up on time, then their opportunity is waiting for them in the second term, where it becomes clear they are good and Geelong struggle a little bit. Additionally, the data is showing that Carlton close out games much stronger than Geelong, but it all rides on the first quarter.
The key battles here revolve around the midfielders. Carlton lack explosiveness and dynamism from the stoppage - something which Patrick Dangerfield possesses in abundance. Also, keep an eye on Jacob Weitering - so far, the young Blue is yet to concede a goal to his direct opponent this year. But Tom Hawkins is a walking mountain, and will be a much different match-up to Tom Lynch and Tom McDonald.
Brisbane vs West Coast
It's been a topsy-turvy start to the season for both of these teams. West Coast followed up a strong win against Melbourne with a disappointing loss against Gold Coast where they simply got bullied out of it by a younger team who wanted it more. Brisbane started off with a loss against Hawthorn, only to win against Fremantle in a match that was too close for comfort at points for Chris Fagan.
This set of data posits quite an interesting match-up. Initially, West Coast look to enjoy the upper-hand, but further analysis indicates this isn't true. Whilst Brisbane's second quarters appear terrible, they don't concede that much - but in the last quarter, they do. What West Coast's data is reflecting is an inability to run out games, which begins to nullify an apparent weak spot for the Lions. Expect both teams to start strong and go heavy in the third term, providing an evenly poised match.
Around the ground, the Lions appear to enjoy the contested side of things more than their counterparts, whilst West Coast thrive on the uncontested ball. Aside from that, however, they are quite evenly matched statistically, indicative of a close game.
As always, Lachie Neale will be of vital importance to Brisbane, but they do currently enjoy a bit of depth in midfield and there are other players capable of stepping up in case he gets shut-down. Look for Elliot Yeo to put in a big performance against his old side.
Gold Coast vs Adelaide
Well, who saw this one coming? After last week's performances, Gold Coast are surely heading in to this week as the tipster's favourite. The plaudits (rightly) went to prodigy Matt Rowell, but the truth is that, after getting roundly beaten by a strong Port Adelaide team, a young Gold Coast team put in a mature, physical contest against an established West Coast side - and it was their young stars who led the charge.
Adelaide, on the other hand, are 17th on the ladder, and are bordering on crisis mode - yet again. A disappointing loss to Sydney where they held the ascendancy cut deep, but not as deep as the bollocking they received off of the Power the week after.
Gold Coast are impossible to judge at the moment. Their loss against Port Adelaide was bad, but Adelaide's was worse. Furthermore, their Marsh Series form was really, really good - they touched up a strong Geelong team, and beat a full-strength Adelaide team by seven points - a good barometer for this game.
Expect Gold Coast, who are on a high, to come out all guns blazing in an effort to bury Adelaide early on (not everyone's as good as Carlton at staging comebacks). The Suns are also more strong in the second and third terms, so if they obtain the ascendancy in the first, they should win the game. However, if Adelaide gain the advantage from the first term, expect a closely fought encounter throughout, as Adelaide, despite their flaws, are showing a trend of where they finish quite strong.
Staggeringly, the Crows are averaging just 254 disposals at 66% efficiency. That is 62 less than their opponents. They need to get their hands on the footy more in order to stand a chance at winning.
The key player here is Jack Bowes. When he's up, the Suns are up, and he's effectively their playmaker off of half back with some really clean ball use.
Essendon vs Melbourne
An intriguing match-up between two sides who might be scratching their heads wondering how they're where they are. Essendon managed to scrape by in both their wins, appearing to severely run out of gas and winning through pure desperation, whilst Melbourne, after suffering a disappointing loss to West Coast, held on to a one-point win against Carlton. The celebrations (or lack thereof) were telling; they knew they got away with one.
However both sides are presented here with a real opportunity to kick on and aggressively chase that top 4-8 spot on the ladder, in a match between two even teams.
Intriguingly, for both sides, the data is showing a trend where, as the game goes on, defensive stats increase and attacking stats decrease. It could suggest a leaf being taken out of the Book of Buckley; however, after watching the last two games for both sides, questions must be asked of their fitness and concentration levels.
Essendon, twice, were nearly steam-rolled by an on-rushing opposition towards the back-end of the game. Against West Coast it wasn't as apparent as both sides tapered out in the match, but against Carlton, the Demons looked dead on their feet at the end of the match.
What this means is we can expect a fast, explosive start from both sides before the match eventually evolves into a slightly more scrappy, open affair as they try to attack towards the back-end. Considering their data output, it should be an evenly matched, open affair.
Essendon's point of difference is in their tackling; currently, they are averaging 14 more tackles per game than Melbourne, with six more tackles inside 50 per game.
The key battle will be in the ruck contest; if Max Gawn is allowed to dominate like he did in the first quarter against Carlton, then this game is Melbourne's to lose. If Bellchambers can restrict his influence, however, expect a much more even contest.
Fremantle vs Port Adelaide
Port Adelaide are on fire at the moment. They destroyed a Gold Coast team that outplayed the Eagles, Cats and Crows, before proceeding to annihilate the Crows themselves in the Showdown. They will be looking to continue their red-hot form against a Fremantle side who are yet to really hit their straps under Longmuir. Granted, they look good in parts, but they are yet to seriously apply a four-quarter effort in any of their matches.
At the moment, Fremantle are averaging one good quarter, one bad quarter, and two average quarters - and this just won't do against a Power side that appear, at face value, to be one of the leading teams for the season. What is working for the Dockers is that they appear to be able to finish games strongly, which is something that will hold them in good stead in this match-up.
What isn't is the second and third quarters. This is where Fremantle were most potent last week. This is where the Power are at their stingiest, most potent selves. Port Adelaide's defensive stats in the second and third quarters are very low, accounting for their attacking stats, which are very high. This is how the game will be won or lost - in this middle part, and how the Dockers respond to it.
Additionally, Port Adelaide appear to be susceptible to starting off a little slow. This is where Fremantle need to drive the hammer in and set their point of difference.
As for the key players, Nat Fyfe will be essential in depriving the Power's midfield of the ball, whilst clean delivery off the back-half from Luke Ryan will be just as pivotal. For the Power, Justin Westhoff loves a day out against Fremantle - expect the versatile forward(?) to play a role.
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