Rewinding back to Thursday on the 11th of June at approximately 10:30 at night, the footy 'purists' were sharpening the pitch-forks.
The game was going to the dogs, allegedly. The shortened quarters were ruining it, the footy wasn't fast enough or attacking enough, and the Twitter-sphere was abound with references back to the 'good old days' of AFL.
But, is this actually the case?
The truth is, yes - yes it actually is the case. For once, AFL social media is putting forth a valid point.
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In fact, based off the first two rounds, once everything is taken into a relative perspective, there is a noticeable decline in attacking footy from the past three seasons. A couple of hours of research will tell you that.
But while everyone is exceptionally busy dealing with their pandemic life and deciding whether or not to wear their good pair of trackies to the living room, lucky for you, we've crunched some of the important numbers.
THE DATA...
First and foremost, the important concept to consider here is relativity. The ensuing data is all relative to the preceding seasons (which we've also provided).
The point is, there is 20 per cent less game-time for players to play in, and thus, if we ratio the stats accordingly, we obtain full meaning.
Additionally, the parameters of this data only focus on Rounds 1 and 2 for scores registered per quarter to provide an accurate comparison for 2020, whilst the average margin and average points were taken from the whole season.
So without further ado, here is our first data set:
There is a noticeable decline of scores registered, across the board, from the first two rounds of every season. The fourth quarters in 2020 can be explained by this, essentially, being a 'pre-season' of sorts for the players - match sharpness is not high, and training does not bring match fitness.
It's all well and good if the points are coming down, but are the margins? In short, no.
Season 2020 +120% (the predicted trend for full 20-minute quarters) is sitting around the same mark as 2017, when points scored per team, per game, was roughly 10 points higher.
Furthermore, the 'pass mark' is regarded as amassing 80 points, with 100 viewed as the target to obtain a victory.
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Applying the aforementioned relativity, in 2020 that decreases to 54 points and 80 points respectively. Seven teams did not hit 54, while six teams reached 80.
But how does this drop in scoring come about? We can get some help from Sir Isaac Newton's third law of physics for that one.
First it was Alastair Clarkson and Paul Roos who came in with defensive, win-at-all-costs approaches. This was then countered by Geelong's approach. Which was thwarted by Ross Lyon and company... which in turn met a reinvigorated Geelong... who got beaten by Hawthorn (again).
Lately we've seen the attacking approaches of Leon Cameron, Adam Simpson, to an extent Ken Hinkley, and Damien Hardwick's AFL answer to Jurgen Klopp's "heavy-metal football".
This "high-scoring, high intensity" approach was being countered by Carlton being Carlton under Bolton, Gold Coast being Gold Coast (although maybe not anymore), a Hawthorn side refusing to go away and, most importantly, Nathan Buckley.
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Yes, the dew setting in hurt the level of quality in the game. And yes, absolutely the players would be feeling nervous heading into the first game back with everyone watching. There were a lot of cobwebs to dust off, after tall.
But even Hawthorn kicked over 36 points in Round 2, and they got smashed by a classy Geelong outfit at Kardinia Park.
Buckley, against the better teams, is starting to favour a slower game focused on ball retention after attempting to obliterate the opposition in the first term, and depriving the opposition of any opportunity to catch Collingwood on the break.
In some instances, it's worked spectacularly, especially on the instance of that 2018 preliminary final against Richmond. In others, it didn't work so well.
But the point still remains. In order to counter things such as Richmond's full-throttle press and the Giants' "Orange Tsunami", teams are starting to favour a slower, structured approach to counter these free-flowing tactics. For them, clearly, it is working; scores registered and points per team are dropping.
Now, that isn't to say a massive U-turn won't happen - this is 2020 after all, and Carlton might actually turn up in the first quarter for a change. But, in order to slow down teams like Richmond, more methodical approaches are being taken with the ball off the half-back line (circa Buckley) and without, they are adopting a more physical approach - and it must be stressed, against the better teams.
Just look at Gold Coast and North Melbourne's respective approaches, and how that worked for them.
Disclaimer; This is not a slight on defensive football or more conservative coaches. The writer is of the belief that this is a results-based business, not an entertainment scheme.
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